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Climate change - Implications for the Prairies

R.B. Stewart
RS

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R.B. Stewart

Résumé du colloque

This paper describes the impact of possible climatic change resulting from increased CO2 warming on estimated dry matter yields for spring wheat crops in Saskatchewan, Canada. Data generated by the GCM modeling experiments at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration is compared to the 1951-80 climate normals. Climate change projected by the GISS model would increase the annual temperature and precipitation in Saskatchewan by an average 4.7°C and 15%, respectively; the growing season length would be increased by an average of 48 days, advancing the growing season by about 2-3 weeks and extending the fall harvest period by about 3-4 weeks. Precipitation during the growing season would be increased by an average of 15%, however, analysis using the Palmer Drought Index suggests that Saskatchewan would become more drought prone. The impact on yields is estimated using a generalized crop growth model by modifying the temperature and precipitation input data in relation to the 1951-80 normals period. Results suggest that in the absence of direct CO2 effects, production in Saskatchewan would be reduced by 16 to 26%. Assuming a 15% increase in photosynthetic capacity as a direct effect of doubling of CO2, in addition to the temperature and precipitation, production would still fall by 6 to 15%. Any decrease in precipitation from current levels would significantly impact yields.

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Section :
Climatologie et météorologie
news icon Thème du colloque :
Climatologie et météorologie
host icon Hôte : Université d’Ottawa

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Thème du colloque :

Climatologie et météorologie
Climate change - Implications for the Prairies
R.B. Stewart